BMW Championship
BMW Championship
Aug 19, 2024BMW Championship
It was one of those ‘nearly but not quite’ weeks for us in Memphis as, with the exception of Sungjae Im who struggled throughout, our team produced a solid week without bringing any return.
Aided with strong Sundays our two big priced plays Eckroat & Cole both finished in the top 20 while Billy Horschel hovered on the fringe of the places most of the week before finishing tenth.
The event itself was won by Hideki Matsuyama who delivered a tremendous putting week, which allied to his usual strong ball striking should have been enough for a comfortable run away victory. In the end though having started Sunday with a five shot lead a faltering back nine, which saw him bogey 14, double bogey 15 and fail to birdie the par 5 16th saw him briefly surrender his lead. Like the true champion he is though the Japanese star steadied himself top birdie the final two holes to post a well-deserved victory.
So onwards we go to the second week of the Fedex Cup Play Off’s, The BMW Championship.
The field has been whittled straight down to 50 players and with those who have made it this far now guaranteed a seat at the table in all of the big Signature Events next year I expect there to be plenty of players in good spirits this week!
That said of course there is still work to be done particularly for those outside of the current top 30 rankings as they look to punch a ticket to East Lake.
The BMW Championship was first introduced on to the PGA Tour in its current format in 2007.
The tournament is run by the Western Golf Association who had also historically run the BMW Championship’s predecessor the Western Open.
Since the event became one of the Fedex Cup Play Off events it has rotated around several courses predominantly in the Illinois area including Conway Farms, Cog Hill GC, which was the host of the historical Western Open. This year though in a change from the norm we are off to Colorado and to the Castle Pines GC in Denver.
The field as would naturally be expected is a stellar one with Scottie Scheffler of course dominating the market. Scheffler is then followed by Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy both also at single figure odds.
COURSE
Castle Pines GC is a par 72 measuring a whopping 8130 yards on the official scorecard. As such it will officially be the longest course played in PGA Tour history.
That said though this doesn’t tell half the story as it as ‘at altitude’ sitting over 6000 feet above altitude. Realistically then with the ball travelling a lot further in these conditions it will play more like a 7300 yard layout. Expect to see plenty of 400yd+ drives!
The greens are Poa mixed with Bentgrass.
The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus and was opened for play in 1981. Other Nicklaus designs played regularly on tour are Muirfield Village, home of the Memorial, PGA National, home of the Cognizant Classic, the Old Greenwood host of the Barracuda [as well as Montreux G &CC previous host venue for this event]. In addition Valhalla host of this years PGA Championship is a Nicklaus design.
Of the above it may well be that the two courses, which host the Barracuda give us the best clues as they are also at altitude, with the Old Greenwood sitting a similar 6000 feet above sea level.
Other events, which have been played at altitude over recent years include the CJ Cup when formerly at Nine Bridges, the CJ Cup at the Summit Club in Las Vegas and the Shriners. Both of the latter two are played about 3000ft above seas level compared to this weeks 6000. Finally the WGC Mexico played at Chapultepec from 2017 through to 2020 is another event to look at.
Those with a longer memory will remember that Castle Pines used to be a regular stop on the PGA Tour hosting the old International event up until 2006, which was played in the modified Stableford format as the Barracuda now is.
With no players here this week who played that event though and with the course having undergone a redesign since then there’s not too much to be gleaned from that history.
The layout features considerable elevation changes while typically for a Nicklaus track Castle Pines gives players a bit of room off the tee, the rough though could be problematic if you do stray off the fairways. The key then will be judging approach yardages at the altitude and handling the slick greens, which are expected to run at 13 on the stimpmeter.
HISTORY
So let’s take a look at the last ten winners of the BMW Championship since 2010.
The winners of these events have been as follows;
2023 V Hovland
2022 P Cantlay
2021 P Cantlay
2020 J Rahm
2019 J Thomas
2018 K Bradley
2017 M Leishman
2016 D Johnson
2015 J Day
2014 B Horschel
2013 Z Johnson
2012 R McIlroy
2011 J Rose
To me the key to the Fedex Cup Play Offs has always been momentum. From that point of view I thought I’d take a look at how the past winners here had faired in the previous Play Off events that year and you can see this in the table below.
Dell Tech Finish Fedex St J/Northern Trust Finish
2023 V Holvland 13th
2022 P Cantlay - 57th
2021 P Cantlay - 11th
2020 J Rahm - 6th
2019 J Thomas - 12th
2018 K Bradley 49th 34th
2017 M Leishman 3rd MC
2016 D Johnson 8th 18th
2015 J Day 12th 1st
2014 B Horschel 2nd MC
2013 Z Johnson 27th DNP [5th at Wyndham prior start]
2012 R McIlroy 1st 24th
2011 J Rose 68th 6th
As we can see from the table above this event is historically where the momentum of the Play Off’s and recent form has really started to kick in and until Bradley’s win in 2018 all of the previous eight winners had posted a top 10 in their previous two starts coming in to the week.
In 2019 things changed slightly as we only had one Play Off event proceeding this week however Justin Thomas had played strongly at the Northern Trust the week before his victory here finishing twelfth and it is also worth mentioning he finished twelfth in his previous start as well at the WGC Fedex St Jude.
In 2021 Jon Rahm built on a sixth place finish the previous week at the Northern Trust to bag the trophy in Illinois, while in 2021 Patrick Cantlay had finished 11th in the Northern Trust the week before picking up the BMW trophy.
In 2022 Cantlay bucked the trend somewhat by finishing a lowly 57th the week prior, however he had posted three top tens in his three previous starts to that. Last year however this pattern reared its head again with Hovland triumphing on the back of a 13th place finish at the Fedex St Jude.
With the host course changing for this event every year there is limited value in studying the leaderboards as a whole from the recent years.
In addition as you would expect from an event that is made up of a limited field of elite players shock winners in the BMW Championship are few and far between.
WEATHER FORECAST
After the potential for a storm at the beginning of the week we look set for four dry, sunny tournament days temperatures in the mid to high 80s.
Wind could be a bit of an issue with Saturday showing the potential for 20mph + gusts.
As I always say though…this could all change!
PICKS
I have gone with four players this week as follows;
COLLIN MORIKAWA –14/1 – 4pts Win. - FINISHED 28th
I will start this week with Collin Morikawa.
Let’s get the elephant in the room out of the way first here. Morikawa by his standards of late had a very poor week at the Fedex St Jude with his approach play for, which he ranked 65th out of 70 about as bas as it has been in a long, long time.
Why then are we even considering Collin for this week?
Well to be frank I have had this tournament earmarked for the two time Major Champion for most of this year and with his record over the years of producing winning performances straight off the back of bad ones I am not going to let one poor week put me off, particularly when he has been so strong of late as a whole.
So on to Collin’s credentials, firstly we have his record on Jack Nicklaus layouts, which is superb. A winner at Muirfield Village in the one off Workday event post covid, Morikawa also has a tremendous record in the Memorial where he has done all but win. Furthermore he has a win at the Nicklaus designed Concession Club in another ‘one off’ post covid tournament.
Finally the jewel in the crown to Morikawa’s Nicklaus credentials is that his maiden tour win came in 2019 at the Barracuda on the Nicklaus designed Montreux GC, a course which sits about 6000ft above sea level comparably to this weeks test.
This moves us on nicely to Morikawa’s record at altitude, which as well as including that win includes a runner up at the CJ Cup at the Summit Club in Vegas where he is a member. Add this to the fact that Morikawa lives in Las Vegas and clearly he is more than comfortable at Altitude.
Morikawa has had a fine summer, which started with a fourth place finish at the PGA on the Nicklaus designed Valhalla and his customary big finish at Muirfield Village where he was runner up and all that he is lacking is a win. He should be licking his chops this week then at getting back on another of Jack’s designs and I simply can’t ignore his credentials.
WYNDHAM CLARK –33/1 – 1.5pts E/W 1/5 odds 1st 6 - FINISHED 13th
Next up this week are the somewhat obvious ‘local’ credentials of Wyndham Clark.
As we know siding with a player with home ties can be a double edged sword with the added pressure sometimes proving too much. On this occasion though, and allowing for the added ingredient of the ‘altitude factor’ being in, I am keen to give Clark the benefit of the doubt.
Born and raised in Denver Clark has talked about attending the old International event at Castle Pines and how it inspired him to progress in the game. Clearly then while it is not a course he will play too much these days it is a track he knows well and indeed has played through the course of this year, as per content out there in the social media world.
As well as knowing the track we of course return to the important issue of playing at altitude and again Clark will have had a huge amount of experience of this over the years. In fact following on this theme I sided with a young, inexperienced Wyndham way back in 2019 at the CJ Cup at Nine Bridges partly due to this train of thought and he duly obliged finishing eighth in the altitude to bag us a place at juicy triple digit odds.
Long off the tee and strong on par fives I would always be keen on Clark on a track with some room off the tee and four par fives and if you then throw in the altitude and local links this looks perfect for him.
With regards to his form this year there have no doubt been some ups and downs but Wyndham has shown us time and again that when his game is firing he is not afraid to go toe to toe with the big guns and with four top 15 finishes including three top tens, in his past five starts he seems to be running in to form again.
Clark rounded out his week in Memphis with a bogey free 64 to finish seventh ranking 12th in approach and fifth in putting so he should certainly arrive in Colorado in fine spirits.
I’ll take the chance then that Wyndham rises to the occasion playing in front of his home crowd and assuming so I can see him delivering a really big performance.
BILLY HORSCHEL – 33/1 – 1.5pts E/W 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 22nd
Next up I am going to give another chance to Billy Horschel.
I sided with Billy last week on the basis of him always being a ‘momentum player’ to follow when he gets hot and while he unfortunately didn’t quite deliver for us there wasn’t too much wrong in his tenth place finish.
A look at Billy’s stats last week show us that he ranked 12th in approach play and eighth in good old fashioned GIR so his iron play was clearly in good fettle, unfortunately the putter though, which was strong over the first couple of days went cold over the weekend and held him back.
So we know Billy is in good form of late but another key link to him this week is his record on Nicklaus layouts. A winner at Muirfield Village Horschel also can boast a runner up finish at the one off event at the Concession Club where he was pipped by Morikawa. In addition he was eighth at the PGA at the Nicklaus designed Valhalla earlier this year.
The one slight concern might be that the Florida Gator doesn’t have any great pedigree at playing in altitude however he does have a top ten at Chapultepec in the WGC Mexico to hang his hat on so I am happy to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Ultimately though Billy has his tail up at the moment and is in strong form and if you add in his fondness for a Nicklaus test that is more than enough for me to stick with him this week.
WILL ZALATORIS – 60/1 - 1pt E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 13th
Finally I will wrap things up this week by chancing Will Zalatoris.
Will has returned this year after lengthy time off for a well-documented back injury and having started his comeback strongly things have gone somewhat awry for him through the summer with no top 40 finishes since his ninth at Augusta until a 12th last week in Memphis.
A former winner at TPC Southwind there is of course a danger that his performance last week was a ‘one off’ spike based on his positive memories of the venue however this is certainly bult in to his odds this week. If though his game has turned a corner there are plenty of positive signs pointing to this course being a good fit for Zalatoris.
Firstly his strong record at Augusta, a track, which is very much a ‘second shot course’, which rewards par five scoring is a good tie to here while his fifth place at Muirfield Village in the Memorial in 2022 is an excellent pointer.
Ultimately though from a course correlation point of view the best link could be that Will landed his lone win on the Korn Ferry Tour at TPC Heron Lakes in 2020 in Colorado about an hour away from this weeks venue and on a track, which sits at 5000ft above sea level. Positive vibes in Colorado then for Will and at altitude.
At his best Will is clearly more than capable in this company, with plenty on the line then this week as he enters at 37th place in the Fedex standings I’ll take a risk at the odds that he can build on last week and thrive in Colorado once more.